Fitch Rates Jefferson's Ferry, NY Rev Bonds 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'BBB+' rating to the following Town of

Brookhaven Local Development Corporation revenue refunding bonds issued

on behalf of Active Retirement Community (d/b/a Jefferson's Ferry):

--$39.24 million revenue refunding bonds, series 2016.

Bond proceeds including new issue premium are being used to refund the

outstanding 2006A bonds ($38.6 million), to finance the construction,

renovation, improvements at the Jefferson's Ferry (JF) facility ($2.5

million), to fund a debt service reserve fund, and to pay costs of

issuance. Jefferson Ferry's ability to issue the series 2016 bonds is

subject to approval from the state which has not been received to date.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

The bonds are secured by a pledge of gross revenues, a mortgage lien,

and a debt service reserve fund.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

HEALTHY LIQUIDITY LEVELS: JF had unrestricted cash and investments of

$33 million in fiscal 2015 which translates into 520 days cash on hand

(DCOH), 81.3% cash to debt, and a 11.5x cushion ratio which all compare

favorably to Fitch's 'BBB' category medians of 400, 60%, and 7.3x,

respectively.

SOLID OCCUPANCY: JF has demonstrated strong demand for its services due

to its favorable reputation, good location, and modest competition. This

can be evidenced by the July 2016 occupancy rates of 95.4% for

independent living units (ILUs), 100% of assisted living units (ALUs),

and 90% skilled nursing (SN) beds. Over the last three fiscal years,

occupancy rates have averaged 93% for ILUS, 89% for ALUs, and 96% for

skilled nursing. Additionally, JF currently maintains a waiting list of

approximately 65 people.

STEADY DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE: Strong demand for services and consistent

receipt of net entrance fees have led to robust cash flows. These have

translated into pro forma maximum annual debt service coverage (MADS) of

2.8x in fiscal 2015, 2.4x in fiscal 2014, and 2.3x in fiscal 2013 all of

which remain higher than the Fitch 'BBB' category median of 2.0x.

REDUCED DEBT BURDEN: The series 2016 refunding bonds are expected to

help cut JF's MADS by approximately 30% which helps significantly reduce

JF's debt burden. Pro forma MADS equates to a manageable 10.9% of fiscal

2015 revenues, which is lower than Fitch's 'BBB' category median of

12.4%. Additionally, debt to net available is 5.0x in fiscal 2015, which

also compares favorably to the category median of 5.9x.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

LIQUIDITY LEVELS: If Jefferson Ferry experiences strong operations and

robust cash flows that lead to increased liquidity levels and debt

moderation, there could be positive rating action. Conversely, should

operating performance weaken or the liquidity levels deteriorate, there

could be negative rating pressure.

CREDIT PROFILE

JF is a continuing care retirement community (CCRC) located on a 50-acre

site in South Setauket, NY. JF, which opened in May 2001, consists of

248 ILUs, 60 ALUs, and 60 bed SN facility which includes 20 beds for

memory care. JF's SN beds are certified for both Medicare and Medicaid.

JF offers two Lifecare (Type A) contracts: a 90% refundable entrance fee

contract and a traditional amortizing entrance fee contract. Both

contracts require an upfront entrance fee and ongoing monthly fees.

Refunds for contracts are given in the earlier of: 30 days following a

new resident or one-year, which could be a credit challenge if ILU

turnover accelerates and new unit sales slow down. In fiscal 2015, JF

had total operating revenues of $26.5 million.

SOLID OCCUPANCY

JF has demonstrated consistent demand for their service lines as

evidenced by strong occupancy over the last few years. As of July 2016,

occupancy rates were 95.4% in ILUS, 100% in ALUs, and 90.20% in SN beds.

Furthermore, historical occupancy has been strong as JF demonstrated the

following average occupancy rates over the three fiscal years: 93% for

ILUs, 89% for ALUs, and 96% for SN beds. These strong occupancy rates

can be attributed to its strong reputation and limited competition in

the demographically attractive Long Island market.

JF also benefits from its affiliation with its sole owner, Mather. In

addition to realizing operational synergies with its association to the

health system, the relationship also supports SN facility demand as JF

has the ability to accept outside admits directly into its SN facility.

As of July 31, 2016, approximately 19.8% of SN revenue comes from

Medicare, 9.1% from Medicaid, and approximately 7.6% from private pay.

The remaining 63.6% comes from residents whom have entered into a

Lifecare contract for one of JF's ILUs. Fitch views the affiliation with

Mather as a credit positive.

LIMITED CCRC COMPETITION

JF benefits from having limited competition for prospective residents as

there are only two other CCRCs currently located in the vast Long Island

market, both of which are outside JF's primary service area. The two

CCRCs are: Peconic Landing (rated 'BBB-'/Outlook Stable by Fitch) is

located approximately 45 miles from the facility in Greenport and

Amsterdam at Harborside is located approximately 31 miles from the

facility in Port Washington. Additionally, there is a third CCRC which

is currently in the planning stages that located about 13 miles from JF

in Commack, NY. The proposed CCRC has not starting taking entrance fee

deposits, so the effect, if any on JF's ILU demand is not yet evident.

Regardless, its location outside of JF's primary service area, the long

timeline to potential opening, and the region's favorable demographics

help mitigate concerns. Fitch believes JF's favorable competitive

profile should support ongoing demand.

ROBUST DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE AND STRONG LIQUIDITY

JF's operating performance declined slightly in fiscal 2015 but remains

sufficient for its rating level. JF had an operating ratio of 100.8% and

a net operating margin (NOM) of 3.2%, which both remain weaker than

Fitch's 'BBB' category medians of 96.1% and 8.9%, respectively. While

these ratios remain below the medians, they are typical for a Type A

CCRC with mostly refundable contracts. Concerns over JF's more modest

operating performance are mitigated by consistent cash flows, robust

debt service coverage, and strong liquidity levels.

Additionally, while having a weaker NOM, JF's adjusted NOM remains

strong at 24.8% in fiscal 2015 which is higher than the category median

of 19.3%. This strong adjusted NOM illustrates JF's consistent cash

flows from turnover units, which totaled $6.2 million in fiscal 2015,

$4.5 million in fiscal 2014, and $4.9 million in fiscal 2013. These

solid cash flows have translated into robust pro forma MADS coverage of

2.8x in fiscal 2015, 2.4x in fiscal 2014, and 2.3x in fiscal 2013, which

all remain higher than the 'BBB' category median of 2.0x.

JF's liquidity metrics remained solid in fiscal 2015 and are sufficient

for its current rating level. JF had approximately $33 million in

unrestricted cash and investments which translated into 520 DCOH, 81.3%

cash to debt, and 11.5x cushion ratio which all compare favorably to

Fitch's 'BBB' category medians of 400, 60%, and 7.3x, respectively.

DEBT PROFILE

The $39.24 million series 2016 refunding revenue bonds are expected to

be issued to refund JF's outstanding 2006 bonds, to finance various

capital costs, to fund a debt service reserve fund, and to pays costs of

issuance. The 2006 bond proceeds were used to advance refund the series

1999 bonds which were used to finance, equip, and construct the JF

facility. JF only has fixed-rate debt, which is viewed favorably. The

series 2016 bonds are expected to offer significant debt service savings

and will help reduce JF's debt burden.



The refunding is projected to reduce JF's MADS by approximately 30%,

despite the issuance of $2.5 million of new money bonds. In fiscal 2015,

pro forma MADS represented 10.9% of total revenues which is lower than

Fitch's 'BBB' category median of 12.4%. Debt to net available was 5.0x

in fiscal 2015 which also compares favorably to median of 5.9x. The $2.5

million of new money bonds are expected to be used to help fund capital

improvements of the facility over the next few years. Additionally,

annual capital expenses of approximately $3 million in the near term are

manageable and no additional debt is currently planned.

DISCLOSURE

JF covenants to provide audited financial information and operating

statistics within 150 days of fiscal year end. Additionally, JF

covenants to provide quarterly financial information and operating data.

All information will be provided via the Electronic Municipal Market

Access System which is maintained by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking

Board.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.

Applicable Criteria

Not-for-Profit Continuing Care Retirement Communities Rating Criteria

(pub. 04 Aug 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/868824

Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria (pub. 16 Jun 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/750012

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